At 9:03 this morning, the NHC raised the probability of AL97 developing into a depression within 48 hours from orange (40%) to red, near 100%. At 11:00 am today AL97 will be classified as TD (tropical depression) #3. They will begin issuing advisories and putting up tropical storm watches along the South Florida coastline and Fla. Keys at that time. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will begin flying canned patterns into the system, determining among other things the exact center position every three hours. Our NOAA G-IV will also fly again this afternoon and evening, as they did yesterday, and I expect they will be tasked again for tomorrow. Today's pattern for the G-IV is shown to the right.
Please not that the forecast tracks have been moved further south and now have the storm moving through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico. While this typically is cause for alarm along the Gulf coast, the intensity forecasts do not bring this storm to hurricane strength - yet.
We are awaiting word on tasking for the NOAA P-3 for tomorrow. The G-IV has been tasked once again for Friday. Since there will be frequent changes in events related to this storm, I shall continue to update the blog at appropriate times.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
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