For almost two weeks the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been tracking a wave moving very slowly across the Atlantic. When first seen it looked fairly potent and NHC was very excited, giving it a high probability of developing into the Atlantic season's first named storm (Alex). While the wave looked great (see right) and even showed signs of rotation, it faced some real difficulties. First, it was too early in the season for a Cape Verde storm, and it soon encountered strong westerly winds aloft and cooler sea surface temperatures. This caused a weakening of the wave, and it barely held together as it continued its westward march across the Atlantic.
But, now it's in the central Caribbean, and because some of the
forecasts show it moving into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening into a hurricane, renewed interest is being shown by the NHC. I've shown here the model forecast from yesterday, 21 June, for both the track and the intensity. You can rely reasonably well on the track forecast, but since we don't do very well with intensity forecasts you can take that with a grain of salt.
So we have to ask ourselves, is this really the start of the Atlantic hurricane season? With the heightened concern over the oil spill in the Gulf, any storm there will be dealt with using every resource available. If it does become a hurricane I am certain that both our G-IV and available P-3 will be pressed into service. Looks like its boom or bust. Stay tuned.
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