As we begin the 2010 hurricane season i is appropriate to point out that the forecasts issued by both NOAA and the Colorado State University (CSU) are a bit ominous in the sense that they call for a very active season. NOAA predicts that there is a 70% probability that each category range will be as follows:
- 14-23 Named Storms,
- 8-14 Hurricanes
- 3-7 Major Hurricanes
- An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
The last category, ACE, is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index and a measure of the total overall seasonal activity. It takes into account both the intensity and duration of named storms, and the high range indicated does not bode well for the hurricane season.
Why such a difference over last year? One of the major reasons is the collapse of El Nino, that warm pool of water in the Pacific that produces shearing westerly winds aloft over the Caribbean and Western Atlantic that inhibit the development of storms in thee areas. El Nino has been replaced by cooler waters called La Nina, thus reducing this shear. We'll have to see how this plays out over the course of the season, but these conditions are very reminiscent of those in 2005.
The NOAA Aircraft Operations Center, to which I am affiliated as Chief, Programs staff and its Hurricane Program Manger, has a stable of 3 aircraft engaged in a wide variety of atmospheric, oceanographic and environmental research and operations as well as 10 other aircraft involved in marine mammal surveys, remote sensing of the environment and aerial mapping of our shorelines. This blog will be primarily directed to the activities of the first three aircraft, two WP-3D Lockheed Orions and a Gulfstream G-IV, as they are the principal platforms involved in NOAA's hurricane research and operational programs.
As I begin this blog, please bear with me as I must learn to master the art of blog creation once again. I prepared an extensive 2008 hurricane season blog with considerable detail about these two types of aircraft, and I will be referring you to that blog for background information. First I need to get organized, and then we'll get on with the season.
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